The 2024 Oscars Poll: The Results
Our panel of esteemed movie nerds predict how tonight is going to go.
Happy Oscars day, folks! Before I get into the poll proper, a small note about the broader newsletter: I’ve spent the past few months moving to and getting settled in a new city, which is why I haven’t been able to properly write (or even catch anything to write about, really) recently. However, I’m planning to reimagine what I want to use this for over the next few months beyond this poll and my annual year-ender, and am hoping to properly get the ball rolling again by July 2024. If you’re interested in that / want to hold me accountable, hit that subscribe button below.
Welcome to the third annual La Loma Oscar Poll, where my film friends and I attempt to prognosticate on this year’s Super Bowl for people who are active on Letterboxd. More than functioning as a standard Oscar pool that tries to read the Academy’s famously maddening tea leaves, I’m also interested in what folks people think should win among the nominees, as well as the films and performances that they would’ve added onto the lists given the chance. I always find the results to these things fascinating, and I look forward to doing this every year, even as I’ve been swamped by life recently.
Last year, I expanded this poll from 5 initial participants to 19, and while this year’s total of 20 responses isn’t as sharp an uptick, it does hearten me that we still seem to be growing. Plugging a few of the respondents’ own writing platforms, content channels, and other things of note below:
Earl: Letterboxd
Emil Hofilena: Letterboxd
Justin Nava: IG
Kristofer Purnell: IG | Letterboxd | Wordpress
If you’re interested in participating in the next iteration of the poll in 2025, shoot me an email! I think this newsletter is small enough that I can safely make this open invitation.
Results
As expected, most of our voting body predicted a very strong showing for Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, the prohibitive Best Picture favorite since it came out last July. The rare large-scale technical showcase that’s also peppered with strong performances and driven by a showy, Academy-friendly screenplay, Oppenheimer is expected to do well in all segments of the card, and according to our voters, it will rack up 9 awards, a feat only 7 other films have achieved.
Coming in at a distant second—and the only other film expected to take home multiple Oscars—is its release-date foil Barbie, getting recognized here for its sumptuous costuming and production design, as well as a win for Billie Eilish’s existential ballad “What Was I Made For?”. Beyond Barbenheimer, 8 films share the remaining 8 awards, simultaneously a testament to how competitive this year’s field is and how much Oppenheimer looms over them all.
Like last year, our “Should Win” results spread the wealth a fair amount more, with a surprise (to me) in Poor Things taking home the most hypothetical Oscars by virtue of Mark Ruffalo tying Ryan Gosling in Barbie for our Best Supporting Actor pick. Seven of the 10 Best Picture nominees get at least two statuettes if it were up to us, with one surprising shut-out being Celine Song’s Past Lives, otherwise a very strong presence on the ballots.
We were much more in lockstep with the Academy this year compared to last year, as our voters agreed with the betting favorites on 12 of the 20 feature categories. However, we disagreed on three of the Big 4 categories, which might speak to a small rebellion among our voter base against Oppenheimer’s dominance of the card.
One last thing worth noting: For the first time in the (admittedly short) history of this poll, we have a unanimous result. All 20 ballots had Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s layered, melancholy performance in The Holdovers as the deserving winner for Best Supporting Actress: Group-think I can get behind.
This is always my favorite part of the polls: The hidden treasures our individual voters feel were shafted by the Academy. I’ll let them speak for themselves, but a few things worth nothing: (1) Unlike the Academy, we are a very pro-May December voting body, and (2) four of the ten Best Picture nominees were mentioned at least 10 times across our “Snubbed” categories, meaning our voters don’t think they were recognized enough. That’s a year with a prohibitive favorite for you.
Read on for detailed breakdowns on how voting across 19 of the sharpest cinephiles I know (+ me) went. If you’re receiving this through email, it might be cut off at some point due to the sheer length on it, but that’s just how much we enjoy the Oscars over here.
Individual ballots should go out for subscribers tomorrow. Enjoy the show tonight, folks!
Big 4 Awards
Best Picture
Will win: Oppenheimer (19 votes)
1 vote: Anatomy of a Fall
Should win: Killers of the Flower Moon (6 votes)
4 votes: The Zone of Interest
3 votes: Past Lives, Poor Things
2 votes: Oppenheimer
1 vote: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers
Should have been nominated: May December (5 votes)
3 votes: The Iron Claw, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2 votes: All of Us Strangers, The Boy and the Heron
1 votes: Afire, Asteroid City, The Killer, Saltburn
We also received a write-in take saying only Anatomy of a Fall, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and The Zone of Interest deserved nominations. This is a hater-friendly space, so I will include it.
Best Director
Will win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (18 votes)
2 votes: Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Should win: Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) (7 votes)
6 votes: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
3 votes: Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
1 vote: Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Should have been nominated: Celine Song (Past Lives) (7 votes)
5 votes: Greta Gerwig (Barbie)
2 votes: Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Todd Haynes (May December), Kelly Reichardt (Showing Up)
1 vote: Zachary Wigon (Sanctuary)
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Anatomy of a Fall (11 votes)
5 votes: The Holdovers
4 votes: Past Lives
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall (7 votes)
6 votes: Past Lives
4 votes: The Holdovers
3 votes: May December
Should have been nominated: Asteroid City (4 votes)
2 votes: Perfect Days
1 vote: Afire, Beau is Afraid, Bottoms, The Iron Claw, The Taste of Things, A Thousand and One, You Hurt My Feelings
We also received a write-in vote for Barbie to be reclassified here instead of in Adapted Screenplay.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Oppenheimer (8 votes)
5 votes: American Fiction, Barbie
1 vote: Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Should win: Poor Things (7 votes)
6 votes: The Zone of Interest
4 votes: Oppenheimer
2 votes: American Fiction
1 vote: Barbie
Should have been nominated: All of Us Strangers, Killers of the Flower Moon (5 votes)
2 votes: Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 vote: Blackberry, The Boy and the Heron
Acting Awards
Best Actor
Will win: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) (18 votes)
2 votes: Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Should win: Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) (10 votes)
9 votes: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
1 vote: Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Should have been nominated: Zac Efron (The Iron Claw), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) (5 votes)
1 vote: Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers), Jason Schwartzman (Asteroid City), Michael Fassbinder (The Killer), Soya Kurokawa (Monster), Franz Rogowski (Passages), Koji Yakusho (Perfect Days)
Best Actress
Will win: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) (14 votes)
5 votes: Emma Stone (Poor Things)
1 vote: Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Should win: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) (10 votes)
6 votes: Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
4 votes: Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Should have been nominated: Margot Robbie (Barbie), Greta Lee (Past Lives) (5 votes)
3 votes: Natalie Portman (May December)
1 vote: Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla), Margaret Qualley (Sanctuary), Leonie Benesch (The Teacher’s Lounge), Teyanah Taylor (A Thousand and One)
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Robert Downey, Jr. (Oppenheimer) (16 votes)
3 votes: Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
1 vote: Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Should win: Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things) (6 votes)
3 votes: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
2 votes: Robert de Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey, Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Should have been nominated: Charles Melton (May December) (7 votes)
3 votes: John Magaro (Past Lives)
2 votes: Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers), Holt McCallany (The Iron Claw)
1 vote: Milo Machado-Graner (Anatomy of a Fall), David Krumholtz (Oppenheimer), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things)
We also received one vote saying that Robert de Niro should be de-nominated. As a respecter of strong takes, I am including it here for posterity.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) (17 votes)
2 votes: America Ferrera (Barbie)
1 vote: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) (20 votes) - *UNANIMOUS*
Should have been nominated: Rachel McAdams (Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret, Julianne Moore (May December) (5 votes)
2 votes: Lily James (The Iron Claw), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest)
1 vote: Leslie Uggams (American Fiction), Kerry O’Malley (The Killer)
Craft Awards
Best Cinematography
Will win: Oppenheimer (19 votes)
1 vote: Maestro
Should win: Oppenheimer (9 votes)
7 votes: Killers of the Flower Moon
3 votes: Poor Things
1 vote: El Conde
Should have been nominated: Godland, The Taste of Things (2 votes)
1 vote: Anatomy of a Fall, Asteroid City, The Creator, Enys Men, The Killer, Past Lives, Saltburn, Skinamarink, The Zone of Interest
Best Costume Design
Will win: Barbie (11 votes)
7 votes: Poor Things
1 vote: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
Should win: Poor Things (10 votes)
8 votes: Barbie
1 vote: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should have been nominated: The Color Purple, Priscilla (2 votes)
1 vote: Anatomy of a Fall, Asteroid City, Fallen Leaves, The Holdovers, Maestro
Best Editing
Will win: Oppenheimer (15 votes)
3 votes: Killers of the Flower Moon
1 vote: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall (8 votes)
6 votes: Oppenheimer
5 votes: Killers of the Flower Moon
1 vote: The Holdovers
Should have been nominated: The Zone of Interest (3 votes)
2 votes: Barbie
1 vote: The Iron Claw, The Killer, May December, Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning, The Taste of Things
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: Poor Things (12 votes)
8 votes: Maestro
Should win: Poor Things (16 votes)
2 votes: Oppenheimer
1 vote: Society of the Snow
Should have been nominated: Priscilla (3 votes)
1 vote: Barbie, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, The Iron Claw, May December
Best Production Design
Will win: Barbie (9 votes)
5 votes: Oppenheimer
4 votes: Poor Things
1 vote: Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon
Should win: Barbie (9 votes)
5 votes: Poor Things
2 votes: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
1 vote: Napoleon
Should have been nominated: Asteroid City (2 votes)
1 vote: The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, The Killer, Perfect Days, Priscilla, The Zone of Interest
Best Score
Will win: Oppenheimer (19 votes)
1 vote: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should win: Oppenheimer (9 votes)
8 votes: Killers of the Flower Moon
2 votes: Poor Things
Should have been nominated: The Boy and the Heron, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (4 votes)
1 vote: Elemental, May December, The Zone of Interest
Best Original Song
Will win: “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie) (13 votes)
6 votes: “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie)
Should win: “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie) (11 votes)
7 votes: “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)
1 vote: “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Should have been nominated: “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” (Asteroid City) (2 votes)
1 vote: “Barbie Dreams” (Barbie), “Dance the Night” (Barbie), “Steal the Show” (Elemental), “Hummingbird” (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse), “For a Moment” (Wonka) (1 vote)
We also received a boycott abstention for this category.
Best Sound
Will win: Oppenheimer (15 votes)
5 votes: The Zone of Interest
Should win: The Zone of Interest (14 votes)
5 votes: Oppenheimer
1 vote: The Creator
Should have been nominated: The Killer (2 votes)
1 vote: Ferrari, Godland, John Wick: Chapter 4, The Taste of Things
Best Visual Effects
Will win: Godzilla Minus One (10 votes)
4 votes: The Creator
2 votes: Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning, Napoleon
1 vote: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Should win: Godzilla Minus One (12 votes)
3 votes: The Creator
1 vote: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning
Should have been nominated: Oppenheimer (3 votes)
2 votes: Poor Things
1 vote: Beau is Afraid, Society of the Snow
Genre Awards + Shorts
Best Animated Feature
Will win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (10 votes)
9 votes: The Boy and the Heron
1 vote: Elemental
Should win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (10 votes)
8 votes: The Boy and the Heron
1 vote: Nimona
Should have been nominated: Iti Mapukpukaw (2 votes)
1 vote: The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Suzume
We also received one write-in take calling The Boy and the Heron “mediocre”. Again, I respect a bold take, so we are including it here for posterity.
Best Documentary Feature
Will win: 20 Days in Mariupol (16 votes)
1 vote: To Kill a Tiger
Should win: 20 Days in Mariupol (8 votes)
3 votes: Four Daughters
1 vote: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, To Kill a Tiger
Should have been nominated: Kokomo City (2 votes)
1 vote: American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Menus-Plaisirs: Les Trougos
Best International Feature
Will win: The Zone of Interest (18 votes)
1 vote: Society of the Snow
Should win: The Zone of Interest (14 votes)
1 vote: Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge
Should have been nominated: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves (3 votes)
1 vote: Godland, Iti Mapukpukaw, The Taste of Things
Best Animated Short
Will win: “War is Over! Inspired by the Songs of John and Yoko” (4 votes)
3 votes: “Ninety-Five Senses”, “Our Uniform”
2 votes: “Letter to a Pig”
1 vote: “Pachyderme”
Should win: “Letter to a Pig”, “Ninety-Five Senses”, “Pachyderme” (3 votes)
1 vote: “War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko”
Best Documentary Short
Will win: “The ABCs of Book Banning” (7 votes)
2 votes: “Island in Between”, “Nai Nai and Wai Po”
1 vote: “The Last Repair Shop”
Should win: “The ABCs of Book Burning” (4 votes)
3 votes: “The Last Repair Shop”
1 vote: “Island in Between”, “The Barber of Little Rock”
Best Live-Action Short
Will win: “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” (12 votes)
1 vote: “Invincible”, “Red White, and Blue”
Should win: “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” (7 votes)
2 votes: “Invincible”
1 vote: “Knight of Fortune”