The 2025 Oscars Poll: The Results
It's the most wonderful time of the (awards season) year!
After a brief break (since 20 newsletters in a month is definitely some kind of oversaturation of y’all’s inboxes), we’re back with another salvo of content, this time on film! We’ll be kicking off the movie content with the results of this year’s La Loma Oscar Poll, an annual tradition that’s brought me a lot of enjoyment, as both a cineaste and a numbers geek. After that, I will be rolling out the results of the La Loma Films of the Decade Poll: Our esteemed voting body’s choices for the 100 best films of the past 5 years, including write-ups from me and a few guests (I simply love a collab) on the top 25. Y’all don’t want to miss any of that, so subscribe now.
Welcome to the fourth annual La Loma Oscar Poll, where my film friends and I attempt to prognosticate on this year’s Super Bowl for people who are active on Letterboxd. More than functioning as a standard Oscar pool that tries to read the Academy’s famously maddening tea leaves, I’m also interested in what folks people think should win among the nominees, as well as the films and performances that they would’ve added onto the lists given the chance. I always find the results to these things fascinating, and I look forward to doing this every year, even as I’ve been busy with various other projects on this newsletter recently.
Unfortunately, my divided attention these past few months is perhaps responsible for the slight shrinking of our voting poll from 20 ballots (including myself) last year down to 17 this year, as I had released this poll late and thus gave myself a shorter runway to nag. This will be rectified next year.
(On that note: If you’re interested in participating in the next iteration of the poll in 2026, shoot me an email! I think this newsletter is small enough that I can safely make this open invitation.)
Before our results, a few words from our sponsors (read: our voters and where you can find their work):
IG: Justin Nava
Letterboxd: Annie Brida | Earl | Justin Nava | Rudraksh Sharma
Substack: Currie McKinley
Results
In sharp contrast to last year’s Year of Oppenheimer, this year finds a more even spread of awards, with Brady Corbet’s showy architectural epic The Brutalist poised to net the most awards tonight according to our voting body with 4 Oscars, 3 of which are in below-the-line categories. Recently-crowned favorite Anora is only tabbed by our voters to take home three awards, but those are in the headliner categories: Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay.
As for erstwhile favorite Emilia Perez: While its Best Picture odds (and even its International Feature chances, if our poll is to be believed) are in the gutter at this point, it won’t be going home empty-handed; Best Supporting Actress and Best Original Song both seem to be locks for them at this point.
In a bit of a departure from usual trends, our “Should Win” picks are slightly less egalitarian than the betting spread, with Anora and Dune: Part Two—the former winning exclusively top-line awards, the latter making hay in the craft fields—sharing the top spot for most awards we’d give them if we were the voting body. Sing Sing, which seems to have gotten lost in the awards season shuffle this year, also got on the board in a big way, bringing home two righteous statuettes from our voters.
If our voters felt strongly about anything in this year’s Oscars landscape, it was that Luca Guadagnino’s steamy tennis drama Challengers was done absolutely dirty this year, where it was surprisingly shut it out of the nominees list entirely. Across all ballots and categories, it was mentioned as a snub 41 times—nearly as much as the next two most-mentioned films combined—and most notably, we received 9 write-in votes for Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s score, which is possibly a record for a craft category in the short history of this poll.
Read on for detailed breakdowns on how voting across 16 of the sharpest cinephiles I know (+ me) went. If you’re receiving this through email, it might be cut off at some point due to the sheer length on it, but that’s just how much we enjoy the Oscars over here.
Individual ballots should go out for subscribers tomorrow. Enjoy the show tonight, folks!
Big 4 Awards
Best Picture
Will win: Anora (8 votes)
5 votes: The Brutalist
4 votes: Conclave
Should win: Anora (6 votes)
5 votes: Nickel Boys
3 votes: Dune: Part Two
2 votes: I’m Still Here
1 vote: Conclave
Should have been nominated: Challengers (8 votes)
2 votes: I Saw the TV Glow, The Wild Robot
1 vote: All We Imagine as Light, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths
Best Director
Will win: Sean Baker, Anora (9 votes)
7 votes: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
1 vote: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)
Should win: Sean Baker, Anora (9 votes)
5 votes: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
3 votes: Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Should have been nominated: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (7 votes)
4 votes: RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys)
1 vote: Magnus von Horn (The Girl with the Needle), Mike Leigh (Hard Truths), Robert Eggers (Nosferatu)
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Anora (8 votes)
5 votes: A Real Pain
2 votes: The Brutalist, The Substance
Should win: Anora (9 votes)
5 votes: A Real Pain
2 votes: The Substance
1 vote: The Brutalist
Should have been nominated: Challengers (5 votes)
3 votes: I Saw the TV Glow
2 votes: A Different Man
1 vote: Hard Truths, Maria
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Conclave (14 votes)
2 votes: Nickel Boys
1 vote: A Complete Unknown
Should win: Conclave (8 votes)
7 votes: Nickel Boys
2 vote: Sing Sing
Should have been nominated: Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu (3 votes)
2 votes: I’m Still Here
1 vote: Hit Man, Last Summer, Queer, Small Things Like These
Acting Awards
Best Actor
Will win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (9 votes)
7 votes: Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
1 vote: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Should win: Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (8 votes)
4 votes: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
3 votes: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
2 votes: Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Should have been nominated: Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (3 votes)
1 vote: Keith Kupferer (Ghostlight), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Nicholas Hoult (Juror #2), Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness), Dev Patel (Monkey Man), Daniel Craig (Queer), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Aaron Pierre (Rebel Ridge), Cillian Murphy (Small Things Like These)
Best Actress
Will win: Demi Moore, The Substance (12 votes)
4 votes: Mikey Madison (Anora)
1 vote: Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Should win: Mikey Madison, Anora (10 votes)
4 votes: Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
3 votes: Demi Moore (The Substance)
Should have been nominated: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (6 votes)
3 votes: Zendaya (Challengers)
1 vote: Vic Carmen Sonne (The Girl with the Needle), Lily Collias (Good One), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria)
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (16 votes)
1 vote: Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Should win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (6 votes)
4 votes: Yura Borisov (Anora), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
2 votes: Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
1 vote: Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Should have been nominated: Clarence “Divine Eye” Maclin (4 votes)
2 votes: Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora)
1 vote: Josh O’Connor (Challengers), Austin Butler (Dune: Part Two), Denzel Washington (Gladiator 2), David Webber (Hard Truths), Bill Skarsgard (Nosferatu), Dennis Quaid (The Substance), Jonathan Bailey (Wicked)
We also received one write-in vote simply stating “Yura all the way”. Unfortunately, this will not count as two points for Yura.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez (12 votes)
2 votes: Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
1 vote: Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Should win: Ariana Grande, Wicked (7 votes)
5 votes: Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
2 votes: Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
1 vote: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Should have been nominated: Margaret Qualley, The Substance (6 votes)
2 votes: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)
1 vote: Catherine O’Hara (Beetlejuice Beetlejuice), Zendaya (Challengers), Selena Gomez (Emilia Perez), Michele Austin (Hard Truths), Tilda Swinton (Problemista), Mahsa Rostami (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)
Craft Awards
Best Cinematography
Will win: The Brutalist (14 votes)
3 votes: Dune: Part Two
Should win: Dune: Part Two (8 votes)
5 votes: The Brutalist
4 votes: Nosferatu
Should have been nominated: Nickel Boys (4 votes)
3 votes: Conclave
2 votes: Challengers, I Saw the TV Glow
1 vote: Anora, The Girl with the Needle, The Substance
Best Costume Design
Will win: Wicked (13 votes)
2 votes: A Complete Unknown, Nosferatu
Should win: Wicked (7 votes)
6 votes: Nosferatu
4 votes: Conclave
Should have been nominated: Dune: Part Two (5 votes)
2 votes: The Substance
1 vote: Challengers, Furiosa, Problemista
Best Editing
Will win: The Brutalist (9 votes)
6 votes: Conclave
2 votes: Anora
Should win: The Brutalist (7 votes)
6 votes: Conclave
3 votes: Anora
1 vote: Wicked
Should have been nominated: Challengers (6 votes)
3 votes: Dune: Part Two
2 votes: Hard Truths
1 vote: Nickel Boys, The Substance
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: The Substance (13 votes)
3 votes: Wicked
1 vote: Emilia Perez
Should win: The Substance (12 votes)
2 votes: A Different Man, Nosferatu
1 vote: Wicked
Should have been nominated: Dune: Part Two, Furiosa (2 votes)
1 vote: Anora, Babygirl, The Girl with the Needle, I Saw the TV Glow
Best Production Design
Will win: Wicked (10 votes)
3 votes: Conclave
2 votes: The Brutalist
1 vote: Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu
Should win: Dune: Part Two (6 votes)
4 votes: Conclave, Wicked
2 votes: The Brutalist
1 vote: Nosferatu
Should have been nominated: The Substance (4 votes)
1 vote: Furiosa, Gladiator 2, I Saw the TV Glow, The Wild Robot
Best Score
Will win: The Brutalist (9 votes)
5 votes: Wicked
2 votes: Emilia Perez
1 vote: The Wild Robot
Should win: The Brutalist (10 votes)
3 votes: Wicked
2 votes: Conclave
1 vote: Emilia Perez, The Wild Robot
Should have been nominated: Challengers (9 votes)
2 votes: Dune: Part Two
1 vote: The Substance
Best Original Song
Will win: “El Mal”, Emilia Perez (13 votes)
2 votes: “Like a Bird” (Sing Sing)
Should win: “Like a Bird”, Sing Sing (11 votes)
4 votes: “El Mal” (Emilia Perez)
Should have been nominated: Assorted songs from Challengers (5 combined votes, including one that was simply “something from Challengers”)
1 vote: “Starburned and Unkissed” (I Saw the TV Glow), “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” (Twisters)
We also received a write-in comment, “Who cares? Dogshit category anyway”. Honestly, points were made, especially this year.
Best Sound
Will win: Dune: Part Two (8 votes)
4 votes: A Complete Unknown
3 votes: Emilia Perez
2 votes: Wicked
Should win: Dune: Part Two (12 votes)
2 votes: Wicked, The Wild Robot
1 vote: Emilia Perez
Should have been nominated: The Brutalist, The Substance (2 votes)
1 vote: Gladiator 2, Nosferatu, Twisters
Best Visual Effects
Will win: Dune: Part Two (10 votes)
4 votes: Wicked
2 votes: Better Man
Should win: Dune: Part Two (12 votes)
3 votes: Better Man
1 vote: Alien: Romulus
Should have been nominated: Furiosa, The Substance (2 votes)
1 vote: Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, Hundreds of Beavers, Twisters
Genre Awards + Shorts
Best Animated Feature
Will win: The Wild Robot (10 votes)
5 votes: Flow
Should win: Flow (9 votes)
4 votes: The Wild Robot
1 vote: Memoir of a Snail
Should have been nominated: Look Back (2 votes)
1 vote: Transformers One
Best Documentary Feature
Will win: No Other Land (11 votes)
2 votes: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
1 vote: Porcelain War
Should win: No Other Land (10 votes)
2 votes: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
1 vote: Porcelain War
Should have been nominated: Dahomey, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (1 vote)
Best International Feature
Will win: I’m Still Here (11 votes)
4 votes: Emilia Perez
Should win: I’m Still Here (7 votes)
5 votes: Flow
1 vote: The Girl with the Needle, TheSeed of the Sacred Fig
Should have been nominated: All We Imagine as Light, How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, Kneecap, Vermiglio, Viet and Nam (1 vote)
Best Animated Short
Will win: “Wander to Wonder” (4 votes)
2 votes: “Magic Candies”
1 vote: “In the Shadow of the Cypress”
Should win: “Yuck!” (2 votes)
1 vote: “Beautiful Men”, “In the Shadow of the Cypress”, “Wander to Wonder”
Best Documentary Short
Will win: “I Am Ready, Warden” (4 votes)
1 vote: “Incident”, “The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Should win: “I Am Ready, Warden” (4 votes)
Best Live-Action Short
Will win: “A Lien” (4 votes)
2 votes: “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
1 vote: “The Last Ranger”
Should win: “A Lien” (2 votes)
1 vote: “Anuja”, “The Last Ranger”, “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
Should have been nominated: “The Ice Cream Man” (1 vote)
Drop your own Oscar takes below!
The odds just changed for the shorts. Is it too late to change my vote? jk jk